Will Israel and the United States Break Up Over Iran?

Advocates of the “first-step” nuclear agreement reached between Iran and the U.S.-led coalition of nations say it has stopped the clock on Iran’s nuclear progress to give diplomacy a chance to roll back the program altogether, thereby denying Iran the ability to become a state on the threshold of achieving a nuclear weapon.
The agreement’s detractors say that the Obama administration has squandered maximum leverage for minimal result, leaving the international coalition with less leverage to compel a comprehensive agreement that truly shuts the door on Iran’s bomb-making potential. Though administration spokespeople have—disgracefully, in my view—attacked the bona fides of critics, reasonable people can disagree on this. I hope the deal’s advocates are right; I have my doubts.

 What is incontestable, however, is that Iran’s march to regional influence continues apace—in Syria, where it is winning a stunning victory in partnership with Hezbollah and Bashar “the Butcher” al-Assad; in Iraq, where its influence is growing in the wake of America’s departure; and even in the Gulf, where some local leaders see the writing on the wall and may be hedging their bets.

 Israel, however, can’t hedge its bet—its relationship with America is too important. To offer the obligatory reminder: Washington and Jerusalem have always had their differences, some truly profound. From 1948 to 1967, America opposed Israel’s expansion beyond the borders envisioned in the U.N. partition resolution. And America has never recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, despite Israel’s repeated requests. At times, the two nations even disagree on the reason for the lack of progress toward peace—is it Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories or the Arabs’ refusal to recognize the legitimacy of the Jewish state?

Despite all this, America and Israel have found a way to build a partnership that is the envy of countries around the world. But given the depths of U.S.–Israeli division over Iran, this partnership may face its most severe test in 2014.

 It has been decades (1982) since an Israeli prime minister so directly opposed a diplomatic initiative of the American president. It has been even longer (1956) since an American president stated publicly and emphatically that he, not Israel’s prime minister, knew what was in Israel’s best interests. Looking forward, even President Obama gave no more than 50–50 odds that U.S. diplomats will reach a comprehensive agreement with Iran.

 The alternative would likely be to extend the temporary deal, triggering a deeper crisis with Israel. That could heighten the potential for a unilateral Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, with U.S. –Israel ties suffering massive collateral damage. Since Israel needs American support when the dust clears, that might not qualify as the worst of times, but it comes close.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/moment/2014/01/u_s_israel_relations_suffer_over_iran_will_washington_and_tel_aviv_s_special.html