When the Syrian civil war began in 2011, it seemed like another example of the Arab Spring which led to the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya and the ouster of Mubarak in Egypt. The end of the rule of the Assads (father and son) seemed likely. Some who were widely optimistic saw this as a chance for a democratic secular regime in Syria.
Now, after more than 100,000 dead and hundreds of thousands more uprooted from their homes or taking refuge in Turkey and Jordan, the muddled situation is becoming clearer. Several factors will ensure Assad not only survives, but continues to rule Syria.
First is that Assad is critical to Iran's foreign policy, and Tehran will not let Assad fail. Two of Iran's objectives are control of Lebanon through Hezbollah and the destruction of Israel. These two are interrelated.
A second factor is Putin and Russia. The relationship between Russia and Syria is long and deep. For decades, Syria was the Soviet Union's primary client state in the Middle East. The Soviets, offsetting Washington's support for Israel, not only supplied military aircraft and other arms to Syria but stationed troops as military advisors in that country. Not surprisingly, many Russians married Syrian women and took them back to Russia.
A third factor is the sectarian nature of the conflict. Syria has become the newest and most lethal battlefield in the bitter war within the Muslim world between Shiites and Sunnis which has raged since Mohammad's death in 632 A.D. This means that we have two militarily powerful nations on Assad's side -- Iran and Russia. Both have supplied heavy arms to Assad. They have also added their own fighters, namely Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah's troops, who enabled Assad to prevail in critical battles. Russian warships are on the coast of Syria ready to help Assad.
Full Story: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/allan-topol/why-assad-will-win_b_4058866.html
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